Over the past couple of years, drones have been generating considerable buzz…no pun intended. We’ve been repeatedly told that soon enough, drones will be able to effectively replace pretty much every individual and vehicle involved in many key logistics processes. Or at least, those involved in delivering products to the end customer. And the fact that we’ve seen companies like Amazon already trial in this kind of machinery would seem to suggest it really is happening.

Which is precisely why so many warehousing and logistics companies are finding themselves a little worried about being left behind. The good news being that regardless of all the hype, it is extremely unlikely that drones are going to begin playing even a remedial role in everyday delivery services for at least another decade or so.

Here’s why:

Drone vs human deliveries

For one thing, it’s worth taking into account the current capacity of the drones companies like Amazon are testing. Each time one of these things makes a successful and indeed impressive delivery, it gets one parcel to one doorstep in an incredibly short amount of time. Nevertheless, while a truck driver may take considerably longer to do his or her rounds, they may deliver closer to 100 or 150 parcels in a single day. So even with constant back and forth service, you would need to be using at least a dozen drones to deliver the same number of parcels per day as just one van. And when you consider how many brands are out and about, you’re actually looking at thousands of expensive and complicated drones, which for the time being just doesn’t represent an affordable investment for even the biggest companies.

Physical delivery

While it’s impressive to see delivery drones dropping parcels conveniently in back gardens, how exactly does this apply to those who live in high-rise apartment blocks? Or for that matter, those with little to no exterior living spaces whatsoever, positioned in close proximity to public roads or payments.  For obvious reasons, drones can only be used to deliver parcels and packages at certain safe distance away from obstacles and people. Which again means that for the time being at least, even the largest and most capable fleet of drones would be 100% useless for serving vast swathes of the population.

Risk

Then there’s the risk factor, which basically involves absolutely anything detrimental that could happen to a drone while in flight. Mechanical failures resulting in the parcel being dropped, guidance failures resulting in drones flying off out of control, crashes, the possibility of the drone as a whole crashing down on someone’s head and so on and so forth. And then of course there’s the obvious risk of drones being hacked, which for the time being is something that simply cannot be ruled out of the equation.

Technology and costs

Last but not least, perhaps the single biggest reason why the delivery drone takeover just isn’t going to happen in the near future is the way in which technology simply isn’t advanced enough to cope right now. Not only this, but the relatively rudimentary technology that is already on the market is cripplingly expensive. At least, in terms of overall cost-effectiveness and usefulness. Which is why despite what’s to come much further down the line, it’s pretty safe to say that your standard warehousing and logistical systems are pretty much safe and secure for the time being.